ABSTRACT
The number of confirmed, deaths and recovered cases of Covid-19 in.the period 08.03.2020-29.04.2021 in.Bulgaria are considered. Various smoothing techniques have been used to highlight the trend in data change. Confidence intervals are obtained for daily and weekly deaths after 14 days based on confirmed cases to date. The Box-Cox transformed confirmed cases were modeled by regression with respect to three dummy variables related to working days and holidays, with errors following ARIMA(1,1,2)(2,0,0)7 model. For Box-Cox transformed deaths, three other dummy variables and lag 16 of transformed and smoothed confirmed cases were used. The regression errors follow ARIMA(1,1,2) model in which the MA(1) coefficient is set to 0. Fourteen daily forecasts are obtained which agree well with the respective test data sets. © 2022 Author(s).
ABSTRACT
The results of a one-year prospective study, during which the process of immunogenesis in patients over 18 years of age with moderate and severe coronavirus infection was monitored and analyzed in clinical and paraclinical (clinical laboratory) aspects, are summarized and presented. The study included 2683 patients, all treated in the Clinic of Internal Diseases at the University Multiprofile Hospital for Active Treatment and Emergency Medicine “N. I. Pirogov” EAD, Sofia for the period from April 2020 to December 2020. Patients were followed for one year after recovering from moderate to severe coronavirus infection. Patients are grouped into four age categories as follows: 18–45 years;46–65 years;66–80 years and over 80 years. The results of our study show that during the study period in 97% of patients the level of anti-SARS-CoV2, rose and in the remaining three percent it was flat or followed by subsequent waning (in less than 1% of patients), but does not reach critically low levels (i. e. below the positivity conditional threshold). The level of IgG reached a peak and then waned, but on the other hand, as mentioned above, the amount of Ig-Total tested shows a significant increase. This trend is observed in all age groups, with a difference in the level of IgG and Ig-Total depending on age. The results of the additional screening in the target period in terms of virulence and virus segregation, categorically rule out the suspicion of the presence of “silent spreader”. During the follow-up period, no patients were re-hospitalized due to recurrence of Coronavirus infection (re-infection and illness). © 2022